Risks & due diligence

Every risk carries the check that retires it. Score = likelihood × impact (1–25). 13 open, 0 in progress, 0 mitigated, 0 closed.

Top open risks

No agreed family budget ceiling (20) — Agree an all-in ceiling and an equity ceiling per family.
Builder pricing above the mid $/sf (16) — Get rough $/sf and schedule from two or three Gunnison Valley GCs.
Prospect covenants forbid lock-off or short-term rental (15) — Order the recorded CC&Rs and PUD guide from the title company; read the STR and accessory-unit clauses.

Matrix

L↓ / I→

budget-ceiling

str-tax

builder-cost

metro-district

use-tax-permits

taps

plans-phase

slope-geotech

rates

insurance

season-slip

covenants-str

drb-approval

Cells list risk keys; colour bands: 1–3 low, 4–8 moderate, 9–14 high, 15–25 severe.

Register

Risk	Score	Status	Owner	Next action	Due diligence that retires it
`budget-ceiling` No agreed family budget ceilingFinancing	20L5 × I4	Open	Both families	Agree an all-in ceiling and an equity ceiling per family.	A number written into the scorecard.
`builder-cost` Builder pricing above the mid $/sfCost	16L4 × I4	Open	Both families	Get rough $/sf and schedule from two or three Gunnison Valley GCs.	Two written budget estimates on the actual plan set.
`covenants-str` Prospect covenants forbid lock-off or short-term rentalLegal / covenants — The Town of Mt. CB has no STR cap, but its ordinance defers to private covenants.	15L3 × I5	Open	Both families	Order the recorded CC&Rs and PUD guide from the title company; read the STR and accessory-unit clauses.	Written confirmation from the HOA / metro district that a lock-off STR is permitted.
`insurance` Wildfire-zone insurance unavailable or far above estimateFinancing	9L3 × I3	Open	Both families	Get an indicative quote from a high-value carrier on the plan set.	Bindable quote.
`plans-phase` Included plans are schematic only, not DD/CDCost	9L3 × I3	Open	Buyer's agent	Identify the architect from the title block; ask for the sheet list and phase.	Architect letter stating phase, reuse rights, and completion fee.
`rates` Construction and permanent rates above the mid caseFinancing	9L3 × I3	Open	Both families	Get a construction-to-perm term sheet from two lenders.	Term sheets with LTV, rate, and guarantee requirements.
`season-slip` Permit lands after Oct 15 and the build slips a seasonTimeline	9L3 × I3	Open	Architect	Work the design and approvals phases back from an April excavation start.	Approved permit before the fall tapping cutoff.
`slope-geotech` Slope, soils or drainage add excavation and foundation costSite	9L3 × I3	Open	Architect	Obtain the completed soil test noted in the listing; commission geotech if incomplete.	Geotech report and a foundation concept from the engineer.
`str-tax` STR excise tax rises and demand softensMarket	8L4 × I2	Open	Both families	Track the 2026 Mt. CB ballot measure; re-run the Rental page with a lower ADR.	Ballot result and one season of comparable listing data.
`drb-approval` Design review board never approved (or rejected) the Hill plansLegal / covenants	6L2 × I3	Open	Buyer's agent	Ask the seller and the DRB for any prior submittal record.	DRB correspondence or a pre-application meeting.
`taps` Water and sewer taps unpaid or priced above estimateSite	6L3 × I2	Open	Buyer's agent	Ask the listing agent for tap status; request the 2026 fee schedule from MCBWSD.	District letter with tap status and fee for the floor area.
`use-tax-permits` Permit, plan-check and materials use tax exceed the line itemCost	6L3 × I2	Open	Both families	Get the current fee resolution and valuation policy from the Mt. CB building department.	Fee estimate on the project valuation.
`metro-district` Metro-district mills and HOA dues double-counted or underestimatedCost	3L3 × I1	Open	Buyer's agent	Get the parcel schedule number and the mill-levy breakdown from the assessor; confirm what dues cover.	Assessor mill levy list and HOA dues statement.

Scores are the families' judgment as of the last edit of 605-prospect/risks.ts; update status there as checks complete.