Rental analysis (lock-off only)
Short-term rental of the lower-level lock-off while the main floor stays private. Columns follow the site convention: Favorable pairs high rent with low costs, Unfavorable the reverse.
Whether Mt. Crested Butte and the Prospect HOA allow a lock-off and short-term rentals on this lot is unconfirmed. If they do not, this page is moot. unverified · medium
Net operating income (mid)
$24K/yr
-$2K – $58K · 142 nights at $361 unverified · low
Carry offset (mid)
4%
of the lock-off plan's monthly all-in ($43,749/mo) unverified · low
Payback on lock-off premium (mid)
5.5 yrs
premium $130K ÷ NOI $24K/yr unverified · low
Nights and gross rent
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ski season (mid-Dec to early Apr)98 rentable nights after 14 family nights | 71 | 59 | 44 |
| Summer (mid-Jun to Sep)98 rentable nights after 7 family nights | 67 | 54 | 39 |
| Shoulder (Apr to mid-Jun, Oct to mid-Dec)148 rentable nights after 0 family nights | 44 | 30 | 15 |
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ski season (mid-Dec to early Apr)ADR (favorable / mid / unfavorable) $600 / $475 / $375 | $42,336 | $27,930 | $16,538 |
| Summer (mid-Jun to Sep)ADR (favorable / mid / unfavorable) $425 / $325 / $250 | $28,322 | $17,518 | $9,800 |
| Shoulder (Apr to mid-Jun, Oct to mid-Dec)ADR (favorable / mid / unfavorable) $275 / $200 / $150 | $12,210 | $5,920 | $2,220 |
| Gross rent | $82,868 | $51,368 | $28,558 |
Operating costs and net income
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Management fee | $12,430 | $10,274 | $7,139 |
| Platform fees & owner-paid taxes | $2,486 | $2,055 | $1,713 |
| Cleaning & turnover | $5,448 | $8,004 | $9,810 |
| STR license & inspections | $400 | $500 | $600 |
| Furnishing & supplies reserve | $3,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 |
| Insurance uplift (STR rider) | $1,000 | $2,000 | $3,500 |
| Operating costs | $24,764 | $27,833 | $30,763 |
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net operating income (annual) | $58,104 | $23,535 | -$2,205 |
Carrying-cost offset
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental NOI per month | $4,842 | $1,961 | -$184 |
| Monthly all-in, lock-off plan (mortgage + carry) | $29,598 | $43,749 | $61,741 |
| Net monthly after rental | $24,756 | $41,788 | $61,925 |
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offset | 16.4% | 4.5% | -0.3% |
Payback on the lock-off premium
| Item | Favorable | Mid | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lock-off premium (build) | $75,600 | $129,920 | $215,050 |
| Rental NOI (annual) | $58,104 | $23,535 | -$2,205 |
| Simple payback | 1.3 yrs | 5.5 yrs | never (no net income) |
Simple payback ignores financing of the premium and any resale value of the second unit. See Build Cost for what the premium buys.
Assumptions
| Assumption | Low / mid / high | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ski season (mid-Dec to early Apr): occupancy | 45% / 60% / 72% | Model estimate — Mt. CB winter STR occupancy, 3-bed unit; replace with cited source unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). |
| Ski season (mid-Dec to early Apr): nightly rate | $375 / $475 / $600 | Airbtics, "Mount Crested Butte Airbnb revenue data 2025" — town-wide ADR $295, occupancy 59%, 215 nights (search snippet) unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). Town-wide average ADR is $295 across all unit sizes; a new 3-bed that sleeps 8 should clear it in winter. |
| Summer (mid-Jun to Sep): occupancy | 40% / 55% / 68% | Model estimate — Mt. CB summer STR occupancy; replace with cited source unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). |
| Summer (mid-Jun to Sep): nightly rate | $250 / $325 / $425 | Airbtics, "Mount Crested Butte Airbnb revenue data 2025" — town-wide ADR $295, occupancy 59%, 215 nights (search snippet) unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). |
| Shoulder (Apr to mid-Jun, Oct to mid-Dec): occupancy | 10% / 20% / 30% | Model estimate — Mt. CB shoulder-season STR occupancy; replace with cited source unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). |
| Shoulder (Apr to mid-Jun, Oct to mid-Dec): nightly rate | $150 / $200 / $275 | Airbtics, "Mount Crested Butte Airbnb revenue data 2025" — town-wide ADR $295, occupancy 59%, 215 nights (search snippet) unverified · lowIncome input: the high value is the favorable case (the engine reads it mirrored). |
| Average stay (nights) | 3 / 4 / 5 | Model estimate — average STR stay length, ski town; replace with cited source unverified · lowIncome input: longer stays mean fewer turnovers, so the high value is the favorable case. |
| Cleaning per turnover | $150 / $225 / $300 | Model estimate — owner-paid cleaning per turnover, net of guest cleaning fee; replace with cited source unverified · low |
| Management fee | 15% / 20% / 25% | Model estimate — local full-service STR management fee; replace with cited source unverified · lowSelf-managing would cut this, but both families live out of town. |
| Platform fees & owner-paid taxes | 3% / 4% / 6% | Crested Butte News, "Mt. CB moves forward with 5% STR excise tax increase" (July 2026) — current excise 4.9%, guest-paid stack ~18.8% unverified · mediumHost platform fee only. Lodging taxes (state + county + town sales + 4.9% town excise ≈ 18.8%) are collected from guests; a further 5% excise on residential STRs is headed to the 2026 ballot. |
| STR license & inspections | $400 / $500 / $600 | Town of Mt. Crested Butte STR FAQ — $400 new / $325 renewal per calendar year, $10 per advertised sleeper, one dwelling unit per license, no cap or zoning restriction (search snippets; pages blocked fetch) unverified · mediumLicense $400 new / $325 renewal plus $10 per advertised sleeper (~8) and inspection. Each lock-off unit needs its own license. Town ordinance defers to private covenants, so Prospect CC&Rs decide. |
| Furnishing & supplies reserve | $3,000 / $5,000 / $8,000 | Model estimate — furniture, linens, consumables reserve; replace with cited source unverified · low |
| Insurance uplift | $1,000 / $2,000 / $3,500 | Model estimate — STR rider or commercial liability over homeowner policy; replace with cited source unverified · low |
Family overflow nights per season: Ski season 14 · Summer 7 · Shoulder 0. These are policy caps from the Ownership page, not estimates.